After both progressed to the cup quarter-finals in midweek, two much-changed sides will be pitched together in a fascinating match-up on Sunday: Atalanta suddenly cannot stop scoring, while Juve have generally been resilient at the back - that hammering at Napoli aside. The troubled hosts are likely to regain their composure, though, and grind out another imperfect win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Juventus win was 1-0 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-2.35) 
0.38) 
