Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Arbroath had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Arbroath win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.