World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage

Nov 18, 2024 at 6.30am UK

Mount Smart Stadium

Samoa
0 - 8
New Zealand

FT(HT: 0-3)

McCowatt (24'), Wood (28', 34', 60'), Stamenic (62'), De Vries (75'), Just (87'), Waine (90+2' pen.)

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Group Stage clash between Samoa and New Zealand.

Form, Standings, Stats

Samoa

Last Game: Samoa 0-3 Tahiti
Friday, November 15 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

New Zealand

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: New Zealand 8-1 Vanuatu
Friday, November 15 at 6.30am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	5	7
2	Mexico	3	2	7
3	Russia	3	0	3
4	New Zealand	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 83.71%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Samoa had a probability of 5.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 0-3 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.38%) and 0-4 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.1%), while for a Samoa win it was 2-1 (1.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-8 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.

Result
Samoa	Draw	New Zealand
5.42% ( 0.68)	10.87% ( 1.25)	83.71% ( -1.93)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Samoa	Draw	New Zealand
2-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.31) Other @ 2.01% Total : 5.42%	1-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.65) 2-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.5) Other @ 0.66% Total : 10.87%	0-3 @ 11.41% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 11.38% ( 0.94) 0-4 @ 8.59% ( -0.42) 1-3 @ 7.7% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.51) 0-1 @ 7.57% ( 1.07) 1-4 @ 5.79% ( -0.39) 0-5 @ 5.17% ( -0.63) 1-5 @ 3.48% ( -0.49) 2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.04) 0-6 @ 2.59% ( -0.52) 2-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.17) 1-6 @ 1.75% ( -0.38) 2-5 @ 1.18% ( -0.19) 0-7 @ 1.11% ( -0.31) Other @ 3.77% Total : 83.7%