UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs B/C | 2nd Leg

Mar 23, 2025 at 5pm UK

Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Iceland
1 - 3
Kosovo

(Kosovo win 5-2 on aggregate)

Oskarsson (2')
Gunnarsson (48'), Gudmundsson (70'), Gudjohnsen (72')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Muriqi (35', 45+3', 79')
Vojvoda (39'), Muriqi (52'), Paqarada (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Iceland and Kosovo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions

Last Game: Kosovo 2-1 Iceland
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Wales	0	0	0
2	Montenegro	0	0	0
3	Turkey	0	0	0
4	Iceland	0	0	0

Kosovo

All competitions

Last Game: Kosovo 2-1 Iceland
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Romania	0	0	0
2	Cyprus	0	0	0
3	Lithuania	0	0	0
4	Kosovo	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kosovo win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kosovo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-0 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kosovo would win this match.

Result
Iceland	Draw	Kosovo
33.19% ( 1.65)	27.24% ( 0.35)	39.57% ( -2.01)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Iceland	Draw	Kosovo
1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.53) 2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.4) 3-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 2.24% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.93% Total : 33.19%	1-1 @ 12.9% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 8.62% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.24%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.34% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.37) 1-3 @ 3.59% ( -0.28) 0-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.3) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.15) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.15) Other @ 1.97% Total : 39.56%