Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 74.35%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 9.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.72%) and 3-0 (10.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lyon | Draw | Metz | 
| 74.35% | 16.22% | 9.42% | 
| Both teams to score 46.54% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 59.88% | 40.12% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 37.5% | 62.5% | 
| Lyon Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 90.75% | 9.25% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.73% | 31.27% | 
| Metz Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 51.28% | 48.72% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.25% | 83.75% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Lyon | Draw | Metz | 
| 2-0 @ 12.77% 1-0 @ 10.72% 3-0 @ 10.13% 2-1 @ 9.18% 3-1 @ 7.29% 4-0 @ 6.03% 4-1 @ 4.34% 5-0 @ 2.87% 3-2 @ 2.62% 5-1 @ 2.07% 4-2 @ 1.56% 6-0 @ 1.14% Other @ 3.62% Total : 74.34% | 1-1 @ 7.72% 0-0 @ 4.51% 2-2 @ 3.3% Other @ 0.7% Total : 16.22% | 0-1 @ 3.24% 1-2 @ 2.77% 0-2 @ 1.17% Other @ 2.24% Total : 9.42% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 38 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 90 | 36 | 54 | 86 | 
| 2 | Marseille | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 63 | 38 | 25 | 71 | 
| 3 | MonacoMonaco | 38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 69 | 
| 4 | Rennes | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 82 | 40 | 42 | 66 | 
| 5 | Nice | 38 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 66 | 
| 6 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 38 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 60 | 43 | 17 | 63 | 
| 7 | Lens | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 62 | 48 | 14 | 62 | 
| 8 | Lyon | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 66 | 51 | 15 | 61 | 
| 9 | NantesNantes | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 55 | 
| 10 | Lille | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 55 | 
| 11 | Brest | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 48 | 
| 12 | Reims | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 46 | 
| 13 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 43 | 
| 14 | Angers | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 41 | 
| 15 | Troyes | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 38 | 
| 16 | Lorient | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 35 | 63 | -28 | 36 | 
| 17 | Clermont | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 36 | 
| 18 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 38 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 42 | 77 | -35 | 32 | 
| R | Metz | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 35 | 69 | -34 | 31 | 
| R | Bordeaux | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 52 | 91 | -39 | 31 | 
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