Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 36.65%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 35.38% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
| 36.65% | 27.97% | 35.38% |
| Both teams to score 47.88% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.86% | 58.14% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.2% | 78.8% |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.6% | 30.4% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.79% | 31.21% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.45% | 67.55% |
| Score Analysis |
| Metz | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
| 1-0 @ 11.29% 2-1 @ 7.83% 2-0 @ 6.73% 3-1 @ 3.11% 3-0 @ 2.67% 3-2 @ 1.81% 4-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.29% Total : 36.65% | 1-1 @ 13.15% 0-0 @ 9.49% 2-2 @ 4.56% Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.96% | 0-1 @ 11.04% 1-2 @ 7.66% 0-2 @ 6.43% 1-3 @ 2.97% 0-3 @ 2.5% 2-3 @ 1.77% Other @ 3% Total : 35.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 38 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 90 | 36 | 54 | 86 |
| 2 | Marseille | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 63 | 38 | 25 | 71 |
| 3 | MonacoMonaco | 38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 69 |
| 4 | Rennes | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 82 | 40 | 42 | 66 |
| 5 | Nice | 38 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 66 |
| 6 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 38 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 60 | 43 | 17 | 63 |
| 7 | Lens | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 62 | 48 | 14 | 62 |
| 8 | Lyon | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 66 | 51 | 15 | 61 |
| 9 | NantesNantes | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 55 |
| 10 | Lille | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 55 |
| 11 | Brest | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 48 |
| 12 | Reims | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 43 |
| 14 | Angers | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 41 |
| 15 | Troyes | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 | Lorient | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 35 | 63 | -28 | 36 |
| 17 | Clermont | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 36 |
| 18 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 38 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 42 | 77 | -35 | 32 |
| R | Metz | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 35 | 69 | -34 | 31 |
| R | Bordeaux | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 52 | 91 | -39 | 31 |
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