Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club America win with a probability of 44.58%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club America win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.02%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
