Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 36.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.99%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 2-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Doncaster Rovers in this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
| 36.55% ( | 24.65% ( | 38.79% ( |
| Both teams to score 59% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.96% ( | 44.04% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.58% ( | 66.42% ( |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.23% ( | 23.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.08% ( | 57.92% ( |
| Doncaster Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.4% ( | 22.6% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.79% ( | 56.21% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
| 2-1 @ 8.25% ( 1-0 @ 7.72% ( 2-0 @ 5.55% ( 3-1 @ 3.95% ( 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 3-0 @ 2.66% ( 4-1 @ 1.42% ( 4-2 @ 1.06% ( 4-0 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.55% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 2-2 @ 6.13% ( 0-0 @ 5.37% ( 3-3 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.64% | 1-2 @ 8.54% ( 0-1 @ 7.99% ( 0-2 @ 5.94% ( 1-3 @ 4.23% ( 2-3 @ 3.04% ( 0-3 @ 2.95% ( 1-4 @ 1.57% ( 2-4 @ 1.13% ( 0-4 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 2.32% Total : 38.79% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
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