

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
| 41.45% ( | 27.86% ( | 30.69% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.21% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.48% ( | 58.52% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.9% ( | 79.1% ( |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.21% ( | 27.79% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.62% ( | 63.38% ( |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.37% ( | 34.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.65% ( | 71.35% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Port Vale | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
| 1-0 @ 12.32% ( 2-1 @ 8.37% ( 2-0 @ 7.89% ( 3-1 @ 3.57% ( 3-0 @ 3.37% ( 3-2 @ 1.89% ( 4-1 @ 1.14% 4-0 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 1.82% Total : 41.45% | 1-1 @ 13.06% ( 0-0 @ 9.62% ( 2-2 @ 4.44% ( Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.85% | 0-1 @ 10.2% ( 1-2 @ 6.93% ( 0-2 @ 5.41% ( 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0-3 @ 1.91% ( 2-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.21% Total : 30.69% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
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