Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 39.77%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-0 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Colchester United | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
| 32.69% | 27.54% | 39.77% |
| Both teams to score 48.75% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.13% | 56.87% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.21% | 77.79% |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.66% | 32.34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.15% | 68.85% |
| Bristol Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.05% | 27.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.43% | 63.57% |
| Score Analysis |
| Colchester United | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
| 1-0 @ 10.2% 2-1 @ 7.34% 2-0 @ 5.76% 3-1 @ 2.76% 3-0 @ 2.17% 3-2 @ 1.76% Other @ 2.7% Total : 32.69% | 1-1 @ 13% 0-0 @ 9.04% 2-2 @ 4.68% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.54% | 0-1 @ 11.52% 1-2 @ 8.29% 0-2 @ 7.35% 1-3 @ 3.52% 0-3 @ 3.12% 2-3 @ 1.99% 1-4 @ 1.12% 0-4 @ 1% Other @ 1.86% Total : 39.77% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 45 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 40 |
| 3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 38 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 32 |
| 7 | Swindon TownSwindon | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 31 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 30 |
| 9 | Salford City | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 28 |
| 10 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 28 |
| 11 | Walsall | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 27 |
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 26 |
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 26 |
| 14 | Stockport CountyStockport | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 15 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 25 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 24 |
| 17 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 22 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 19 |
| 19 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 18 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 16 |
| 21 | Rochdale | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 15 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 14 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 14 |
| 24 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 12 |
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