Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.11%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Carlisle United in this match.
