

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 36.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 1-0 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Colchester United | 
| 36.05% | 26.38% | 37.57% | 
| Both teams to score 52.93% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 48.18% | 51.81% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 26.42% | 73.57% | 
| Mansfield Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.31% | 27.68% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.76% | 63.24% | 
| Colchester United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.2% | 26.79% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.91% | 62.08% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Colchester United | 
| 1-0 @ 9.53% 2-1 @ 8.06% 2-0 @ 6.12% 3-1 @ 3.45% 3-0 @ 2.62% 3-2 @ 2.27% 4-1 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.9% Total : 36.05% | 1-1 @ 12.54% 0-0 @ 7.42% 2-2 @ 5.31% 3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.77% 1-2 @ 8.26% 0-2 @ 6.43% 1-3 @ 3.63% 0-3 @ 2.82% 2-3 @ 2.33% 1-4 @ 1.19% 0-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.21% Total : 37.57% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 | 
| P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 | 
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 | 
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 | 
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 | 
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 | 
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 | 
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 | 
| 16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 | 
| 18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 | 
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 | 
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 | 
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 | 
| R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 | 
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