

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Barrow | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 41.7% ( | 26.25% ( | 32.04% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.52% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.02% ( | 51.98% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.28% ( | 73.72% ( |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.35% ( | 24.65% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.83% ( | 59.16% ( |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.7% ( | 30.3% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.52% ( | 66.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Barrow | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.45% ( 2-1 @ 8.75% 2-0 @ 7.32% 3-1 @ 4.08% ( 3-0 @ 3.42% 3-2 @ 2.44% ( 4-1 @ 1.43% ( 4-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.61% Total : 41.7% | 1-1 @ 12.48% 0-0 @ 7.47% ( 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.25% | 0-1 @ 8.92% ( 1-2 @ 7.46% 0-2 @ 5.32% ( 1-3 @ 2.97% ( 0-3 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 2.08% ( Other @ 3.18% Total : 32.04% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
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