Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 22, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco
Independiente

Guarani
2 - 1
Independiente

David Vargas Areco (28', 80')
Javier Benitez Cabrera (45+1'), Manzur (56'), Fernandez (88'), Maiz (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Loyola (60')
Anyiver Angulo Mosquera (23'), Tarzia (26'), Avalos (72'), Loyola (90+3')
Marcone (45+3')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Guarani and Independiente.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guarani

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Guarani 2-0 Nacional
Friday, April 11 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Independiente

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Independiente 2-0 San Martin SJ
Sunday, April 13 at 10pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 51.44%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Guarani had a probability of 19.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 18.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.67%) and 1-2 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.96%), while for a Guarani win it was 1-0 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.

Result
GuaraniDrawIndependiente
19.47% (-0.134 -0.13)29.1% (0.02 0.02)51.44% (0.115 0.12)
Both teams to score 35.64% (-0.191 -0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
31.49% (-0.153 -0.15)68.51% (0.155 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
13.73% (-0.099 -0.1)86.27% (0.101 0.1)
Guarani Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.11% (-0.252 -0.25)50.89% (0.252 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.73% (-0.17 -0.17)85.27% (0.17 0.17)
Independiente Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.57% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)27.43% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.08% (-0.023999999999994 -0.02)62.92% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Guarani 19.47%
    Independiente 51.42%
    Draw 29.09%
GuaraniDrawIndependiente
1-0 @ 9.43% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-1 @ 4.12% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-0 @ 3.19% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-1 @ 0.93% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 19.47%
0-0 @ 13.96% (0.08 0.08)
1-1 @ 12.19% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 2.66% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 29.09%
0-1 @ 18.05% (0.09 0.09)
0-2 @ 11.67% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
1-2 @ 7.89% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-3 @ 5.03% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 3.4% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.63% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.15% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.1% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 51.42%