Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 34.76% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.58%) and 0-2 (6.06%). The likeliest Honduras win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.
