The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Buxton and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
We said: Buxton 1-3 Morecambe
As much as we would love to predict an upset here, we do think that Morecambe's higher-level quality should see them through the tie. Expect it to be nervy for the League One outfit though, particularly if they do not make a fast start to the game. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 58.67%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 20.83% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 0-1 (7.57%). The likeliest Buxton win was 2-1 (5.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Buxton | Draw | Morecambe |
| 20.83% | 20.49% | 58.67% |
| Both teams to score 61.73% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
