Denmark may have faltered in Qatar, but Hjulmand has forged this side into a stubborn foe on home soil; since Euro 2020, the Danes have conceded two goals in their last nine games in front of their own fans.
Finland are hardly prolific at the best of times and the nation's all-time top scorer, Teemu Pukki, comes into the contest without a goal for club or country since January - giving Denmark the edge in this qualification opener.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 65.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Finland had a probability of 13.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.8%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for a Finland win it was 0-1 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Denmark would win this match.
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