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World Cup

Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 15, 2024 at 12am UK
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha
Bolivia national football team

Ecuador
4 - 0
Bolivia

Valencia (26' pen., 26' pen.), Plata (28', 28', 49', 49'), Minda (61', 61')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Chavez (90+4'), Chavez (90+4')
Sagredo (24'), Sagredo (24')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Uruguay 0-0 Ecuador
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying StandingsPGDPTS
1Argentina101422
2Colombia10719
3Uruguay10716
4Brazil10616
5Ecuador10216
6Paraguay10013
7Bolivia10-1012
8Venezuela10-211
9Peru10-116
10Chile10-135

Bolivia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Argentina 6-0 Bolivia
Wednesday, October 16 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying StandingsPGDPTS
1Argentina101422
2Colombia10719
3Uruguay10716
4Brazil10616
5Ecuador10216
6Paraguay10013
7Bolivia10-1012
8Venezuela10-211
9Peru10-116
10Chile10-135

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 84.4%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 4.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.95%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.21%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (1.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawBolivia
84.4% (-0.26600000000001 -0.27)10.98% (0.18 0.18)4.62% (0.092000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 39.5% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.86% (-0.45599999999999 -0.46)34.14% (0.462 0.46)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.98% (-0.517 -0.52)56.02% (0.523 0.52)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.2% (-0.133 -0.13)5.8% (0.1389 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
77.69% (-0.39200000000001 -0.39)22.3% (0.398 0.4)
Bolivia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
41.93% (0.024999999999999 0.02)58.06% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.37% (0.013 0.01)89.63% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 84.39%
    Bolivia 4.62%
    Draw 10.98%
EcuadorDrawBolivia
2-0 @ 13.64% (0.09 0.09)
3-0 @ 12.95% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 9.59% (0.147 0.15)
4-0 @ 9.23% (-0.093 -0.09)
2-1 @ 7.42% (0.056 0.06)
3-1 @ 7.04% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
5-0 @ 5.25% (-0.099 -0.1)
4-1 @ 5.02% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
5-1 @ 2.86% (-0.052 -0.05)
6-0 @ 2.49% (-0.068 -0.07)
3-2 @ 1.92%
4-2 @ 1.36% (-0.012 -0.01)
6-1 @ 1.36% (-0.036 -0.04)
7-0 @ 1.02% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 84.39%
1-1 @ 5.21% (0.083 0.08)
0-0 @ 3.37% (0.08 0.08)
2-2 @ 2.02% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 10.98%
0-1 @ 1.83% (0.045 0.05)
1-2 @ 1.42% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 1.37%
Total : 4.62%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Bolivia

Ecuador
77.4%
Draw
15.1%
Bolivia
7.5%
53
Head to Head
Jun 13, 2024 1.30am
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
3-1
Bolivia
Valencia (18'), Yeboah (25'), Caicedo (70' pen.)
Gruezo (80'), Caicedo (86')
Terceros (88')
Fernandez (9'), Algaranaz (31'), Villamil (70'), Justiniano (77'), Ramallo (82')
> Preview
Oct 13, 2023 12am
Group Stage
Bolivia
1-2
Ecuador
Ramallo (83')
Cuellar (90')
Paez (45'), Rodriguez (90+6')
> Preview
Jun 18, 2023 12.30am
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
1-0
Bolivia
Valencia (69')
Estupinan (13'), Pacho (36')

Roca (41'), Terceros (53'), Arrascaita (73'), Ursino (85')
> Preview
Oct 8, 2021 1.30am
Group Stage
Ecuador
3-0
Bolivia
> Preview
Mar 29, 2021 9.30pm
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
2-1
Bolivia
Martinez (37'), Estrada (59')
Arroyo (55')
Ramallo (90+4')
Montero (12')
rhs 2.0
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