Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
