Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.12%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Changchun Yatai win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Beijing Guoan in this match.
