We said: Panevezys 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok
The hosts may have managed a shock victory in the first qualifying round, but they come into this game having returned to defeat last time out, their third successive loss in the league.
The visitors, on the other hand, returned to their domestic league with a commanding victory, and we expect them to secure the first-leg lead here.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Panevezys had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Panevezys win was 1-0 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.
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