Champions League

Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK

Stadio di Cornaredo

Lugano
3 - 4
Fenerbahce

El Wafi (4'), Bislimi (64'), Valenzuela (90+4')
El Wafi (29'), Papadopoulos (59'), Bottani (69'), Grgic (71'), Zanotti (77')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Dzeko (45+1' pen., 46', 67'), Kadioglu (74')
Soyuncu (18'), Tadic (45+3'), Oosterwolde (70'), Tosun (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lugano and Fenerbahce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions

Last Game: Lugano 2-1 Grasshopper
Saturday, July 20 at 5pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Fenerbahce

All competitions

Last Game: Fenerbahce 5-1 Hull City
Thursday, July 18 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 58.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 20.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.46%) and 0-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Lugano win it was 2-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.

Result
Lugano	Draw	Fenerbahce
20.86% ( -5.13)	20.98% ( -2.93)	58.16% ( 8.07)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Lugano	Draw	Fenerbahce
2-1 @ 5.53% ( -1.02) 1-0 @ 4.61% ( -1.98) 2-0 @ 2.68% ( -1.16) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.4) 3-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.45) Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.86%	1-1 @ 9.52% ( -1.73) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 3.97% ( -1.7) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.29) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.98%	1-2 @ 9.83% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 8.46% ( 0.21) 0-1 @ 8.2% ( -1.48) 1-3 @ 6.77% ( 1.3) 0-3 @ 5.82% ( 1.13) 2-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.75) 1-4 @ 3.49% ( 1.16) 0-4 @ 3.01% ( 1) 2-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.67) 1-5 @ 1.44% ( 0.65) 0-5 @ 1.24% ( 0.56) Other @ 3.94% Total : 58.16%