MX23RW : Monday, May 22 19:41:58| >> :600:1198556:1198556:
[monks data]
Blackburn logo
Championship | Gameweek 42
Apr 16, 2021 at 6pm UK
Ewood Park
Derby logo
Blackburn
2 - 1
Derby
Gallagher (42'), Elliott (66')
Holtby (32'), Elliott (67')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Lawrence (22')
Clarke (45+1')

Preview: Blackburn Rovers vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Blackburn Rovers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides that remain in Championship relegation danger face off at Ewood Park on Friday evening as Blackburn Rovers host Derby County.

The visitors have lost back-to-back games and enter this contest two places above the dropzone, while Rovers are 17th following a seven-game winless streak.


Match preview

Derby County's manager Wayne Rooney before the match on March 6, 2021© Reuters

Derby's 1-0 home loss to league leaders Norwich City last weekend - Kieran Dowell scoring the only goal in that one - leaves them just four points above the relegation zone.

Should Rotherham United and Coventry City win their games in hand, Wayne Rooney's side will find themselves in the relegation zone.

Blackburn have a slightly healthier margin on the bottom three, though defeat on Friday and Tony Mowbray's men will well and truly be in the relegation mix.

This is a big game for both sides, then, as they each attempt to get back to winning ways with only four matches to go after this one.

The Blue and Whites can be happy with their point away at Cardiff City last time out, with Adam Armstrong scoring his second goal in added time to snatch a 2-2 draw.

Blackburn Rovers manager Tony Mowbray pictured in January 2021© Reuters

However, Rovers have now won just one of their last 15 league games, losing nine and drawing five. Not since February 2016, meanwhile, have they gone more games without a win.

Derby have won of their last ten Championship fixtures, conceding 14 goals and scoring just six in that stretch.

Indeed, since the start of that run on February 26, no team has picked up fewer points than the Rams in the entire division (six).

Bringing an end to that run on Friday will be difficult if recent results between these sides are anything to go by, with Derby losing three in a row at Ewood Park without scoring.

The Rams have lost five of their last seven league matches with Rovers overall, most recently falling to a 4-0 defeat earlier this season.

In what is a big game at the bottom end of the table, another loss here and Derby will be at serious risk of dropping into the third tier.

Blackburn Rovers Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D

Derby County Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

Blackburn Rovers' Adam Armstrong celebrates scoring against Rotherham United in the Championship on December 16, 2020© Reuters

Martyn Waghorn and Matt Clarke are in contention to return from respective hamstring and groin issues, while Nathan Byrne is also back after recovering from a head injury.

However, Derby remain without Lee Gregory, Jack Stretton and George Edmundson for this clash, which has been brought forward a day to avoid clashing with Prince Philip's funeral.

Louie Sibley, Louie Watson and Festy Ebosele were brought on as second-half substitutes against Norwich and are each pushing for inclusion in the starting lineup here.

As for the hosts, Bradley Dack will not play again this season - and possibly the rest of 2020 - while Joe Rothwell suffered an injury last week that ruled him out against Cardiff.

Lewis Holtby was brought on as part of a quintet of changes made after 78 minutes in the Cardiff game, giving an idea of what Mowbray thought of the performance up to that point.

While changes can be expected on Friday, Armstrong and Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott are surely assured of a starting spot in attack.

Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Nyambe, Lenihan, Harwood-Bellis, Douglas; Johnson, Trybull, Rothwell; Elliott, Armstrong, Dolan

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Macdonald, Wisdom, Mengi, Forsyth; Roberts, Bird, Shinnie, Jozwiak; Kazim-Richards, Lawrence


SM words green background

We say: Blackburn Rovers 0-0 Derby County

Blackburn are winless in seven home games, failing to score in the last three of those, while Derby are without a victory in six away matches, failing to score in four.

This is likely to be a real scrap and, going by that recent form, we are tipping this one to finish as a low-scoring draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


ID:443125:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect10329:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Game History

How you voted: Blackburn vs Derby

Blackburn Rovers
57.0%
Draw
17.7%
Derby County
25.3%
79
Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
Cardiff City manager Mick McCarthy pictured on February 16, 2021
Read Next:
Mick McCarthy plays down Cardiff's playoff chances
>
Sports Mole Logo
Enter your email address to subscribe to Sports Mole's free daily transfer newsletter! Sent twice a day during the transfer window.
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBurnley4629143873552101
3Luton TownLuton462117857391880
4Middlesbrough462291584562875
5Coventry CityCoventry4618161258461270
6Sunderland4618151368551369
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn46209175254-269
8Millwall461911165750768
9West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom461812165953666
10Swansea CitySwansea461812166864466
11Watford461615155653363
12Preston North EndPreston461712174559-1463
13Norwich CityNorwich461711185754362
14Bristol City461514175556-159
15Hull City461416165161-1058
16Stoke CityStoke461411215554153
17Birmingham CityBirmingham461411214758-1153
18Huddersfield TownHuddersfield461411214762-1553
19Rotherham UnitedRotherham461117184960-1150
20Queens Park RangersQPR461311224471-2750
21Cardiff CityCardiff461310234158-1749
RReading461311224668-2244
RBlackpool461111244872-2444
RWigan AthleticWigan461015213865-2742

Ted Lasso creative

Subscribe to our newsletter


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!