Sunday, July 6

Sports Mole previews Monday’s Wimbledon fourth-round match between Alex de Minaur and Novak Djokovic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

A year after Alex de Minaur faced disappointment at Wimbledon by withdrawing before playing Novak Djokovic, the Australian now confronts the seven-time champion in Monday’s fourth round, aiming to upset the Serbian in their fourth encounter on the ATP Tour.    

The 11th seed is working towards reaching the quarter-finals in consecutive years after last year's deep run; however, he must beat a player who has not lost before the last eight at SW19 since 2016, when he was eliminated in the third round.  

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Match preview

De Minaur did not hide his disappointment after missing out on last year’s Wimbledon quarter-final against Djokovic, having injured his hip at the end of his fourth-round victory over Arthur Fils.

Devastated, the Australian is back in the fourth round of the Championships, where he faces the man he could not compete against 12 months ago, albeit a round earlier this time, eager to thwart the Serbian’s bid to claim a historic 25th Grand Slam.

The 11th seed has progressed smoothly through rounds one, two and three, dropping only one set in the second round against Arthur Cazaux, whom he defeated in four sets ­— he has secured straight-set victories over Roberto Carballes Baena in the opening round and August Holmgren in round three.

Now up to 13-5 at the Championships, the 26-year-old is aiming for his 14th win to upset the man 12 years his senior in their fourth meeting on the ATP Tour.

Success for the Demon will improve his 30-12 season record, but the 2024 quarter-finalist, aiming for a 31st win in 2025, will need to perform at his best to shock the record-chasing Serbian superstar at SW19.

After overcoming unseeded opponents in the first three rounds, Djokovic faces his toughest challenge on paper in the last 16, having smoothly advanced past Alexandre Muller, Dan Evans and Miomir Kecmanovic.

After losing a set in his tournament opener against Muller, the 38-year-old has defeated Evans and Kecmanovic in the past two rounds, dropping five and seven games, respectively.

Only Carlos Alcaraz has beaten the seven-time champion at Wimbledon since 2017, when an elbow injury forced the Serbian to retire during his quarter-final against Tomas Berdych, highlighting Djokovic’s dominance at the All England Club.

No aspect of the seven-time Wimbledon champion’s performances in week one suggests a dip is imminent, which may worry fans rooting for De Minaur as the Serb seeks another quarter-final appearance at Wimbledon.

Djokovic has served 22, 11 and 16 aces en route to Monday's clash with his Australian opponent, underlining his strong serving this year, which has seen him score easy points to keep opponents at bay, and a similar showing on his deliveries undoubtedly enhances his already strong prospects of eliminating the Aussie.

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Tournament so far

Alex de Minaur:

First round: vs. Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2 6-2 7-6(2)

Second round: vs. Arthur Cazaux 4-6 6-2 6-4 6-0

Third round: vs. August Holmgren 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Alexandre Muller 6-1 6-7(7) 6-2 6-2

Second round: vs. Dan Evans 6-3 6-2 6-0

Third round: vs. Miomir Kecmanovic 6-3 6-0 6-4

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Head To Head

Wimbledon (2024) - Quarter-final: Djokovic W/O (walkover)

Monte-Carlo (2024) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 7-5 6-4

United Cup (2024) - Quarter-final: De Minaur 6-4 6-4

Australian Open (2023) - Fourth round: Djokovic 6-2 6-1 6-2

Djokovic and De Minaur have played three times on the ATP Tour, with the Serb winning twice, including a Grand Slam match in Australia two years ago.

While the Aussie’s level has improved since that straight-sets loss on home soil, he remains an underdog against Djokovic’s experience and skill on this surface.

De Minaur’s only win against the 24-time Slam champion came at the United Cup last year, a straight-sets victory, though the Serbian got his revenge later that year in Monte-Carlo, winning in two sets.

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We say: Djokovic to win in four sets

While Djokovic’s run of straight-set victories is likely to end against the resilient De Minaur, the seven-time Wimbledon champion is expected to outlast the Australian in four sets and advance to the quarter-finals, where he would face either Marin Cilic or Flavio Cobolli. ID:576878:1false2false3false: from db desktop :LenBod:collect6876:

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