Preview: Wimbledon: Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Andrey Rublev is the next in line to try to snap Carlos Alcaraz’s winning streak at Wimbledon, which rose to 17 after Friday’s triumph over Jan-Lennard Struff, with the Russian star aiming to stun the second seed in Sunday’s fourth round. 

Rublev, twice involved in the round of 16, is seeking to reach the quarter-finals at the Championships for the second time at the expense of the two-time defending champion.

Match preview

Aiming to match his second-longest winning streak of 2025, Rublev enters Sunday's match with Alcaraz as the underdog, but one capable of upsetting the second seed. 

The former world No. 5 heads into the meeting on a three-match winning streak, two behind the five en route to the title in Doha and one more from the four in Hamburg in May. 

Now at 21-14 for the season, the 27-year-old is attempting to reach the last eight for the second time in three years after his 2023 run marked his deepest at SW19, meaning he has played the quarters of every Major. 

Although a tournament-opening first-round loss to Argentina’s Francisco Comesana 12 months ago was a setback for the Russian star, the 27-year-old has responded commendably to reach the last 16 this time and now bids to stun the two-time defending champion.

Three-peat-chasing Alcaraz has improved to 21-2 overall at Wimbledon, with Friday's triumph over Struff probably his most comfortable against the German. 

The 22-year-old's previous Grand Slam victory over the German went the distance at SW19, while subsequent meetings on the men's tour at the Madrid Masters went the distance, thereby pointing to a challenge facing the world No. 2. 

While the 35-year-old German evened the match after two sets to make things interesting, the Spaniard raised his level to claim the third and fourth sets to continue his winning run at the All England Club and extend his ongoing run this season. 

Alcaraz's last defeat at Wimbledon came against Jannik Sinner in 2022, and he has since claimed 17 wins, while this year's sequence of wins have stretched to 21, with the five-time Slam champion last losing to Holger Rune in Barcelona in April. 

Having secured the titles in Rome, Roland Garros and Queen's, Alcaraz, whose 45-5 record is superior to every player on the men's tour, now aims to record a 46th to avoid a shock exit and continue his march towards a possible third consecutive crown.

Tournament so far

Andrey Rublev: 

First round: vs. Laslo Djere 6-0 7-6[5] 6-7[9] 7-6[6] 

Second round: vs. Lloyd Harris 6-7[1] 6-4 7-6[5] 6-3 

Third round: vs. Adrian Mannarino 7-5 6-2 6-3

Carlos Alcaraz: 

First round: vs. Fabio Fognini 7-5 6-7[5] 7-5 2-6 6-1 

Second round: vs. Oliver Tarvet 6-1 6-4 6-4 

Third round: vs. Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4

Head To Head

ATP Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 7-6(8) 

Madrid (2024) – Quarter-final: Andrey Rublev 4-6 6-3 6-2 

ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Carlos Alcaraz 7-5 6-2 

Alcaraz leads Rublev 2-1 in their head-to-head entering match No. 4 on the ATP Tour. 

The Spaniard claimed victory in their first and third matchups, while the 27-year-old 17-time ATP champion stunned the home player in Madrid last year en route to claiming the Masters crown in the country’s capital. 

While the world No. 14 will strive for a repeat performance to upset the defending champion in London, his 1-4 record against top-5 opponents in the past 52 weeks, including a French Open defeat to Sinner in straight sets, suggests that Rublev’s level against elite opponents has fallen slightly short. 

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

While Sunday’s contest could indeed go the distance, Alcaraz’s level has been steadily rising since he was taken to five sets in the opening round against Fabio Fognini, indicating that he is finding form as the three-peat dream continues.

Predicted to avoid defeat, the second seed should elevate his performance against the Russian and advance to yet another quarter-final at SW19, where he will face Nicolas Jarry or Cameron Norrie.

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