Preview: Wimbledon: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh off a stunning victory over Emma Raducanu to reach the fourth round, Aryna Sabalenka aims for a 10th consecutive win against Elise Mertens to progress to the last eight at Wimbledon.    

The top seed overcame adversity and home support to outlast the British No. 1 in two tight sets, while Mertens upset favourite and two-time semi-finalist Elina Svitolina to reach the last 16 for the third time at the All England Club.  

Match preview

Although Sabalenka was expected to beat Raducanu in two sets, the Belarusian could have lost both sets if the Briton had handled her leads more effectively.

The world No. 1 overcame deficits in both sets en route to a hard-fought victory with the Centre Court roof closed and supporters making it clear which side they favoured.

Nevertheless, the 27-year-old recovered from falling behind to take seven set points at one stage to win the first-set tie-break, before coming from 4-2 down to clinch the second set for a 7-6(6), 6-4 victory.

Friday's triumph means Sabalenka is just two wins away from reaching another semi-final at SW19, where she has previously reached the semi-finals twice but has never made it to the final.

While she is still far from a potential final and not looking ahead too far, she aims to improve her tournament-leading 45-8 record this year with another win over Mertens.

The Belgian stunned Svitolina in Friday’s third round, handing the Ukrainian player her earliest Wimbledon exit since 2021 when she lost in the second round.

Having previously lost to the 18-time WTA champion in Bad Homburg last week, the 29-year-old Belgian's 6-1, 7-6(4) victory takes her into the fourth round after back-to-back round-two exits in 2023 and 2024, losing to Svitolina in 2023 and Raducanu 12 months ago.

For the first time since 2022, Mertens has reached the fourth round, aiming to go further after previous disappointments.

Barbora Strycova and Ons Jabeur have previously beaten the former world No. 12 in last-16 matches, but the world No. 23 now seeks her first last-eight appearance at a Grand Slam since 2020.

The fourth round has been Mertens's limit since that run to the US Open, where she fell in the last 16 seven times; now she aims to avoid an eighth straight disappointment at this stage.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:  

First round: vs. Carson Branstine 6-1 7-5  

Second round: vs. Marie Bouzkova 7-6[4] 6-4  

Third round: vs. Emma Raducanu 7-6[6], 6-4    

Elise Mertens:  

First round: vs. Linda Fruhvirtova 6-4 6-2  

Second round: vs. Ann Li 6-7[5] 6-1 6-2  

Third round: vs. Elina Svitolina 6-1 7-6[4]

Head To Head

Madrid Open (2025) - Round of 32: Sabalenka 3-6 6-2 6-1

Stuttgart Open (2025) – Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-4 6-1

US Open (2024) – Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-2 6-4

Australian Open (2023) – Third round: Sabalenka 6-2 6-3

US Open (2021) – Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-4 6-1

Madrid (2021) – Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-1 4-0 ret.

Linz (2020) - Final: Sabalenka 7-5 6-2

Dubai (2020) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 6-3

Zhuhai (2019) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-4 3-6 7-5

Montreal (2018) - Round of 16: Mertens 2-6 7-6(1) 6-0

Eastbourne (2018) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 7-5 2-6 7-6(4)

Lugano (2018) - Final: Mertens 7-5 6-2

Since losing the Lugano final in 2018 and two of their first three matches, Sabalenka has defeated Mertens nine straight times heading into Sunday, aiming for a 10th consecutive victory to improve her 10-2 edge.

Although this weekend's match will be their first at Wimbledon, the Breaker holds a 3-0 lead in previous Grand Slam encounters, all without dropping a set.

Mertens's performance against top 10 players in 2025 is 1-7, further emphasising her underdog status against Sabalenka.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Given her current form, it is hard to see a strong argument against Sabalenka reaching the last eight at Wimbledon for the third time, as she continues to pursue a fourth Grand Slam.    

While Mertens will be motivated to break her nine-match losing streak against the Belarusian, her chances appear limited against the women’s No. 1 player in Sunday’s match.

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