Preview: Australian Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Battle-hardened Madison Keys is red-hot Down Under heading into Saturday's Australian Open final tussle with three-peat-chasing Aryna Sabalenka.

The American, fresh off eliminating the second seed in the first women's semi-final to be decided by a 10-point tiebreak, seeks to stun the world No. 1, who enters the 2025 championship match as the favourite for a third consecutive victory at Melbourne Park.

Match preview

© Imago

Does anyone remember four-time tour-level champion and former world No. 15 Kaia Kanepi? Well, she was the last woman to get the better of Sabalenka in Australia, clinching a comeback 5-7, 6-2, 7-6(7) fourth-round success over the Belarusian in 2022.

Since that shock loss to a player that began that year's tournament No. 115 in the world, the 18-time titlist has racked up 20 consecutive triumphs Down Under, winning all but two matches in straight sets.

Elena Rybakina taking the first set off Sabalenka in the 2023 final meant the 26-year-old needed to roar back from a set down to clinch her maiden Grand Slam victory, and a second-set hiccup against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarters this year ended Sabalenka's run of 11 straight-set triumphs at Melbourne Park, her favourite playground.

Another comfortable result in Australia saw the top seed dispatch close friend Paula Badosa in straight sets in one hour and 26 minutes, breaking the Spaniard's serve four times from nine opportunities. This is the 27th time she has found a way to break her opponent's serve this year.

Sabalenka's latest victory at the Aussie Open saw the women's No. 1 join seven other women in the Open Era – Margaret Court (1969-1971), Evonne Goolagong ('71-'77), Martina Navratilova ('81-'83), Steffi Graf ('88-'90), Monica Seles ('91-'93), Martina Hingis ('97-'99) and Serena Williams (2015-2017) – to reach three successive championship matches at the tournament.

Now, she seeks Australian Open immortality to be the first woman since Hingis to claim the three-peat Down Under.

That will be far from straightforward against a woman who never knows when she is beaten, highlighted by Keys's run to Saturday's decider.

© Imago

The 29-year-old has embraced drawn-out matches on her 11th appearance at the opening Slam of the year, sealing three-set wins over qualifier Elena Gabriela Ruse, Rybakina, Elina Svitolina and Swiatek, defeating her last two opponents having dropped the opening set.

Beating Swiatek showed nerves of steel against the second seed, who was chasing her first final in Melbourne after resounding defeats over opponents and with a 4-1 win-loss record against Keys before Thursday.

However, the battle-hardened Keys responded with a bang in set two to force a decider in the eventual 5-7, 6-1, 7-6[10-8] win over the five-time Grand Slam champion, outwitting the Polish superstar in a wildly exciting third set that literally went the distance with the decisive tiebreak.

Keys had failed to convert two break points to lead 5-3 in the third before Swiatek had four opportunities to edge ahead 5-4 taken away by the American player, whose hard-hitting made her younger opponent uncomfortable.

Thursday's success means Keys is back in a Slam final for the first time since her 2017 run to the US Open decider before falling to countrywoman Sloane Stephens, an eight-year gap that eclipsed Amelie Mauresmo's seven-year wait between 1999 and 2006, both at the Australian Open.

The 29-year-old is the oldest women's singles finalist Down Under since Serena and Venus Williams in 2017, and the nine-time tour champion aims to succeed where she failed in New York in 2017.

Keys, whose matches have crossed the two-hour mark on two occasions, has defeated two top-10 opponents during her run – Rybakina and Swiatek – and seeks a hat-trick by defeating Sabalenka. In this form, you would not bet against the 19th seed.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5
Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 7-6[5] 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3
Semi-final: vs. Paula Badosa 6-4 6-2

Madison Keys:

First round: vs. Ann Li 6-4 7-5
Second round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6[1] 2-6 7-5
Third round: vs. Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 5-7 6-1 7-6[8]

Head To Head

Beijing (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 6-3

US Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)

Wimbledon (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-2 6-4

Berlin (2021) - Round of 16: Keys 6-4 1-6 7-5

United States player also had a losing record against Swiatek

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