Tuesday, July 15

Sports Mole previews the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush, looking at the favourites, closest challengers, and some who could spring a surprise.

The golfing world will turn their eyes away from the United States briefly, and to the British Isles this week for the 155th playing of the Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.

Shane Lowry was the winner here in 2019, when the Open returned to Portrush for just the second time, and the first since 1951, but the European contingent will be looking to strike a dagger in the USA’s streak at the majors, which was continued by J.J. Spaun’s win at the US Open last month.

A devilishly difficult Oakmont caused havoc for the world’s best, as Spaun was the sole player to finish under-par for the weekend, only after two astonishing birdies in the final two holes on Sunday clinched him the title.

While Portrush will not be quite as rage-inducing to the players, expect more thick rough, and lightning-fast surfaces, while the wind could also play a big role in the scoring this week.

Here, Sports Mole looks at the leading contenders and the potential challengers to them ahead of the Open, which gets underway on Thursday morning.

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The favourites:

Once again, Scottie Scheffler enters a major championship as the favourite, but there will be plenty of pundits and fans overlooking the world number one this week, given he is now away from his comfort zone in the States, and has never won at a links course.

Doubting Scheffler would be bizarre though, because another solid performance at the Scottish Open last week means he has now finished in the top-10 in each of his last 10 starts, with wins at the US PGA, the Byron Nelson, and the Memorial thrown in.

Even when Scheffler is far from at his best, he can still pull out a T4 at the Masters and a T7 at the US Open, but that is no surprise when he is playing almost an entire stroke better tee-to-green than anybody else, while also leading Strokes Gained: Approach, and Scrambling, which will be vital here given the unforgiving rough.

According to the bookmakers, Rory McIlroy is Scheffler’s only close competitor, and he returned to form with a T2 at the Scottish Open, after a string of disappointing results following his glorious Masters success.

Back on home soil, no player will receive more support this week, so improving on his poor performances at Oakmont and the US PGA will be paramount, and McIlroy’s strong showing at the Renaissance Club last week has seen his odds slashed to 6/1 for a competition he has won before and finished in the top-10 at on seven occasions, but he missed the cut at Royal Troon last year, and here at Portrush in 2019, when his close friend Lowry was the winner.

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Will Europe regain supremacy?

As the last major before the Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black, the European contingent will be keen to see the Americans stopped from claiming a 10th major in 11, and this competition is often their best chance, being played in their own backyard, of sorts.

Lowry was the last European winner of the Open though, here in 2019, as three Americans and Aussie Cameron Smith have clinched the Claret Jug since, so the Irishman will be under pressure to perform here, especially after an underwhelming season so far.

Despite rarely winning Stateside, Lowry’s numbers are still trending towards a victory, ranking high in Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green, as well as proximity to the hole, and he is famed for his magical hands around the green.

Lowry has been disappointing in all three majors so far, collapsing on the Sunday at the Masters and missing the cut at the US PGA and the US Open, but he will be glad to be back at the place where he reached the pinnacle, and there will be a lot of money on him this week.

Likewise, Justin Rose will be well-backed at a big price, after coming from nowhere to finish sixth at the Scottish Open last week, and the Englishman will be keen to make up for missing the cut at the US PGA and US Open, after his heartbreaking playoff defeat at the Masters, and he has a chance, considering he has finished second at the Open in both 2018 and 2024.

The only player that is even remotely close to Scheffler and McIlroy in the markets is Spaniard Jon Rahm, after his two promising displays at the US PGA and the US Open, which saw contend in the former, and make a late charge in the latter.

Playing 54-hole golf on a regular basis is perhaps contributing to him being unable to put together four solid rounds of golf like he did so often before his move to LIV, but despite not getting over the line yet, he has been the most consistent player at the Open in the 2020s, being the only man with three top-10 finishes, and he leads everyone with his score to par (-26).

Another who has been something of a letdown in recent majors is Swedish prodigy Ludvig Aberg, who after missing the cut at both the US PGA and the US Open, has now only made one cut at majors away from Augusta in his career.

Aberg’s accuracy off the tee and approach play have let him down in 2025, and going into the Scottish Open last week, he had missed four cuts in 10, finishing in the top-10 just once, but he showed signs of improvement at the Renaissance Club, coming T8, so he is one to keep an eye on.

Sepp Straka was another player who finished in the top-10 last week, but he has had a bizarre season, winning twice on the PGA Tour, with a further two top-five finishes, despite missing the cut in all three majors, so he will be seeking to replicate his performance from Royal Liverpool in 2023, when he was tied-second behind Brian Harman.

It was tough not to feel sorry for Scot Robert MacIntyre following the dramatic ending to the US Open last month, as he came from nowhere on Sunday and looked set to win before Spaun’s late heroics, but on British soil, he is even stronger, and the 2024 Scottish Open winner will not have that pressure hanging over him this time, at a tournament where he has finished in the top-10 twice, and made all five cuts.

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America’s finest:

Outside of Scheffler, the bookies do not give many of America’s top players much of a chance here, with Bryson DeChambeau’s odds drifting from single digits at the US Open to 22/1 ahead of play this week.

It has been a topsy-turvy year for the most controversial man in golf at present, as his collapse at the Masters brought a smirk to many onlookers’ faces, while he was excellent at the US PGA in finishing second, but Oakmont proved too much of a test for the big-hitter, as he missed the cut, raising questions about his ability at a links course.

There has not been much fuss made about the reigning champion Xander Schauffele either, who was victorious at Troon a year ago, but has had injury problems which caused a slight dip in form earlier this year.

Schauffele’s top-10 finish at the Scottish Open last week was just his second of the year, after also doing so at the Masters, but he is sensational value at 22/1, given that it is almost a given he will be there or thereabouts, having made 68 successive cuts, and following a T12 finish at Oakmont.

US Open winner Spaun is not being spoken about as a contender this week, but that is no surprise, considering this is his Open debut, being the first man to win the US Open before ever playing in British golf’s flagship event since 1978, and missing the cut at the Scottish Open last week suggests he may not enjoy quite the same success he did at Oakmont.

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Who must improve if they want to compete at Portrush?

Apart from McIlroy and Lowry, there would be no winner more popular than Tommy Fleetwood this week, but he let himself down once again at the Travelers last month, just when it seemed he was going to finally break the glass ceiling and claim a maiden win in America.

A late and heartbreaking collapse allowed Keegan Bradley to snatch victory away from the Englishman, who now has 15 top-five finishes on the Tour since 2022, and still no win in over 150 events, but back on home soil, he will be backed, with two of his seven top-five finishes at majors coming at the Open, even though he did miss a rare cut at Troon last year.

Viktor Hovland is another who now needs to add a major title to his honours list, simply to do justice to how good of a player he is, and he was very close to doing so at the US Open last month, playing brilliant golf for about 95% of the tournament, but a few mishaps cost the Norwegian badly, and he was unable to get it going when the tournament was blown wide open on the Sunday.

LIV Golf’s leading light Joaquin Niemann had another week to forget in his last major appearance, missing an eighth cut in 25 major starts at the US Open, and his past results at the Open make for grim reading, with two missed cuts and no finishes inside the top-50 in five starts, so it is hard to back the Chilean this week.

Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, Russell Henley and 2023 Open champion Brian Harman are American players who have all flattered to deceive at the biggest events this year, but none more so than Collin Morikawa, who has still only won once since clinching the Claret Jug in 2021.

Morikawa fell away at the Masters, and never contended at either the US PGA or the US Open, before missing the cut at the Scottish Open a week ago, so even though there are very few weaknesses in his game, and he has won this competition before, mental fragility seems to be his Achilles heel at present, and makes him tough to back.

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Outsiders to consider:

Harman’s Open win in 2023, and even Spaun’s victory at the US Open, once again proved that there is a huge pool of players capable of competing and winning at the majors, and this week is no different, especially with the big two not being as well-backed ahead of play.

Canadian Corey Conners is a player who has become part of the furniture on the PGA Tour, but the question remains whether he has it in him to go the extra step and win a tournament quite as big as a major.

He has huge strengths which allows him to compete, ranking high in driving accuracy, hitting greens in regulation, and his Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, but putting remains a big problem, even though he has made four straight cuts at the Open, and has eight top-20’s in 17 starts this season, including at two majors.

Englishman Aaron Rai is always worth a punt given his consistency, having the highest percentage of fairways hit on the PGA Tour, which will help at a links course, where the rough is often more unforgiving compared to in the USA, and winning Stateside last year suggests he has the game to mix it with the best at the majors too.

If anyone is asked to recommend one of the South African players who will tee it up this week, many will look to Aldrich Potgieter, who won at the Rocket Mortgage two weeks ago, but Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the most consistent of their contingent, and even though he has not been quite at his best this season, a T13 at the Scottish Open and a T12 at the US Open last month suggests that he loves a challenging course, and Portrush could suit him.

The Open also offers the opportunity for some of the best players on the DP World Tour to showcase their ability at a course more suited to what they play on a weekly basis, and Marco Penge backed up his strong season with another great performance at the Scottish Open last week, finishing second in what was his third top-three finish of the season.

Penge is not yet playing on the PGA Tour, but that may not be for much longer, as a player who hits greens and putts very well, he is also a long hitter, and has won on the DP World Tour this year, and came T28 at the US PGA, while also sitting third in the Race to Dubai standings.

Kristoffer Reitan is arguably the DP World Tour’s most in-form player though, having won the European swing with a win and two runners-up finishes so far in 2025, so he is definitely one to keep an eye on at 300/1, in what is his Open debut, and just his second major appearance, after the 2018 US Open.

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