US Open 2025 predictions: Who could challenge Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau at Oakmont?

Possibly the most eagerly-anticipated US Open in many years will get underway on Thursday, as the finest golfers in the world converge on Oakmont for the 125th edition of the major in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Known infamously as the toughest course in the US Open rotation, this week could be a long, hard slog for the world’s best, and something they are not accustomed to, after a run of six straight tournaments where the winning scores have combined to make 47-under-par.

An over-par winner is not out of the question this week, as Angel Cabrera won at five-over in 2007, and only four players went under par here in 2016 when Dustin Johnson reigned supreme.

With rough over half a foot long, lightning fast, undulating greens, and unforgiving fairway runoff with no first cut means scoring could be very high this week, and only the most resilient of golfers will come out of Oakmont unscathed, and here, Sports Mole looks at the main contenders to win the US Open.

The undisputed favourite:

Scottie Scheffler has been the favourite for pretty much every tournament over the past three seasons, but he has arguably never gone into a major in such commanding form, and so much clear of the rest in terms of his underlying numbers.

The three-time major winner deserves his own section alone, given how extraordinary his play has been in 2025 so far, and this comes off the back of a 2024 when he was putting up numbers not seen since the era of Tiger Woods.

Evidently, Scheffler was not happy at having his thunder stolen by Rory McIlroy, who completed the Career Slam earlier this year, so he responded by winning the Byron Nelson with a whopping score of 31-under-par, and he followed that up with a victory at the PGA Championship last month, and another at the Memorial in his last start.

The world number one has finished in the top 10 in each of his last seven starts, and he even came fourth at the Masters despite not appearing to be playing well at any point during the week, which is why when he does turn it on, he wins so convincingly.

Over the past 40 seasons on the PGA Tour, only Woods (24), Davis Love III (nine) and Dustin Johnson (eight) have won more events by four or more strokes than Scheffler (seven), who is now already level in that statistic with McIlroy and Phil Mickelson.

Looking at his stats this season, many would be handing him the trophy on Thursday morning, because at Oakmont, accurate driving, good approach play, and the ability to scramble will be paramount, and he leads the PGA Tour in all of those metrics.

Astonishingly, Scheffler is almost one entire stroke better tee-to-green than any other player on the Tour, while he also leads Strokes Gained: Approach and for Scrambling, but it is his mental toughness and resilience that is most impressive, because one bad hole virtually never leads to a collapse.

Every player is going to get into trouble this week, and how they respond to that will determine where they finish, and no player in golf right now is as irrepressible in the face of adversity than Scheffler, and while many of the best will get bogged down by this psychologically draining course, the clear favourite will flourish.

Scottie’s closest challengers:

Less than a week ago, McIlroy was the clear second-favourite, priced at around 13/2, but after a woeful showing at the Canadian Open, the Masters champion has plummeted down the odds to 12/1, with many now questioning his motivation after achieving the Holy Grail.

Only four players finished below the Northern Irishman, who missed the cut at nine-over-par, a few weeks after a disappointing T47 finish at the PGA, but he does have a strong record at the US Open, where he was the runner-up last year.

McIlroy lost in devastating fashion to Bryson DeChambeau at Pinehurst a year ago, but he has finished in the top-10 in each of the last six years in this competition, and he could equal a record only previously set by three men, with the last to do so being Ben Hogan in the early-1950s.

Replacing McIlroy as the second favourite is DeChambeau, who has been excellent in both majors this year, barring the final day at Augusta, where his game complete fell to pieces, after leading in the early stages of the Sunday.

The controversial American responded by finishing tied-second behind Scheffler at the PGA last month, and he is a two-time winner of the US Open, so many will see him as the biggest threat to his compatriot, but he is aware of the difficulties this course possesses, saying recently: “this course doesn’t just challenge your game, it challenges your sanity”.

The home candidates:

Outside of Scheffler and DeChambeau, very few players are putting together consistent seasons, so it is tough to single out anyone from the chasing pack who could put a challenge together.

Xander Schauffele is often a safe bet to contest, having made 65 successive cuts on the Tour, while also winning two majors in 2024, but even though he has finished in the top-15 in each of the last eight US Opens, his only top-10 this season in nine starts came at the Masters, so it is tough to know where his game is at after an injury setback early in the year.

Many began to get excited about Justin Thomas’s return to form following his win at the RBC Heritage, which has also contributed to an impressive four top-two finishes this season, but he missed the cut at the PGA, and his frequent wayward driving is unlikely going to do him any favours at this course.

Others will look at Collin Morikawa again for some value in the markets, and he certainly has the game to add to his collection of two major titles, especially this week considering he has the second-best driving accuracy on the PGA Tour this season, but he flattered to deceive when well backed at Augusta, and he recently finished over-par at both the PGA and the Memorial, as the big tournaments continue to evade him, with his last notable win coming back at the 2021 Open Championship.

Could the US Open return to European hands?

Six Europeans have won the US Open in the last 15 years, including Matt Fitzpatrick most recently in 2022, but nobody from the continent is showing the required consistency needed to compete with the likes of Scheffler at the moment.

Shane Lowry would be the best bet of any European player this week, as he ranks highly in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Proximity to the Hole, but the Irishman rarely wins Stateside, and with the Open going to Royal Portrush on his home island this summer, that could suit him slightly more.

Ludvig Aberg continues to be touted as the next breakout star in the sport, but his inconsistency has been hugely costly this year, especially when missing the cut at the PGA, which is one of three occasions he has failed to make the weekend in his last eight starts.

Two more of those appearances have seen Aberg finish outside the top-50, while he has just one top-10 in that time, with his approach play and driving accuracy severely lacking, and that will be a big problem this week if it continues.

As one of a handful of players with multiple wins this season, Sepp Straka also has another two top-five finishes on his record this season, but he has failed to deliver at the majors, missing the cut at both the Masters and the PGA, extending his rather feeble record at the big events.

Who must improve to have any chance this week?

Jon Rahm put together his best showing at a major since defecting to LIV at the PGA last month, but a late capitulation that saw him drop five shots in the final three holes put paid to his hopes, despite moving to within one shot of Scheffler on the back nine.

Evidently, playing 54-hole golf on a regular basis may have proven costly with that collapse in the final straight, but the Spaniard has had success at the US Open before, winning the competition in 2021.

The same cannot be said for Joaquin Niemann, who has seemingly mastered the art of winning 54-hole tournaments, but has not proved he has the game to win a major, as a decent performance at the PGA was just his second top-20 finish in 24 major starts - seven of which have ended in him missing the cut.

Tommy Fleetwood is a very short price this week for a man who has still never won in America in his career, meaning that there is not much each-way value in the Englishman, who is so often the nearly-man, with 14 top-five finishes on the Tour since 2022 - by far the most by any player without a win in that time.

Missing the cut at the PGA marked another disappointing week for Jordan Spieth, who has now won just twice in eight years, while the Valspar champion Viktor Hovland also appears to be going through the motions at the moment, after going against the grain and changing his swing that brought him so much success earlier in his career.

The outsiders with a chance:

Englishman Aaron Rai continues to gain more traction on the Tour, especially after winning the Wyndham Championship in 2024, and after coming in the top-20 at the PGA, he could do well at Oakmont, considering he has the highest percentage of fairways hit on the Tour this season, where avoiding the rough will be crucial.

Many will be looking at the in-form Ryan Fox this week, after he won for a second time on the PGA Tour at the Canadian Open last week, with the 38-year-old’s first success coming just a month earlier at the Myrtle Beach Classic, but they are his only two top-10 finishes this season.

Taylor Pendrith is certainly an outsider whose game could be suited to Oakmont, as he has excellent stats off-the-tee, with four top-10 finishes on his record this season, including coming fifth at the PGA, and 12th at the Memorial recently, meaning there is value in him at 100/1.

The final outside tip is for Colombian Nico Echavarria, who has an impressive game, shown by the fact he won twice on the Tour already, despite his tender age, and has made seven straight cuts heading into the week, but his tendency to fall apart when things go wrong has been costly at the Masters and the PGA this year, after making promising starts in both, but being priced at 400/1 is doing him an injustice.

Written by
Andrew Delaney