Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 39.14%. A win for Belarus had a probability of 36.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.43%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest Belarus win was 1-2 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.