Preview: USA vs Mexico - prediction, team news, lineups

For the sixth time this century and the second time in the last three editions of the CONCACAF Gold Cup, the USA and Mexico will meet in the final on Sunday at NRG Stadium in Houston.

In the semi-finals earlier this week, the Yanks hung onto a 2-1 win over Guatemala, while El Tri came away with a 1-0 triumph in their match against Honduras.

Match preview

It has been anything but a smooth ride, but the Americans are in the final for the third time in the last four Gold Cup tournaments, with a chance to lift the trophy for an eighth time.

Winning this match would mark the first trophy for Mauricio Pochettino as an international coach and give the Argentine some sweet vindication after all the criticisms he took heading into the Gold Cup, with his team losing four consecutive games before this competition began.

In three of their last four appearances in the final of this tournament, the Yanks have walked away with the trophy, with the US posting a clean sheet in two of those instances.

Sunday will be the fourth time they play in the final of a major CONCACAF tournament this decade, and the United States have emerged victorious in all three of those previous competitions, one of which was at the 2021 Gold Cup.

They have emerged victorious from their last nine matches played across all competitions when even or in front after 45 minutes, having been in that position four times at the Gold Cup this year.

Houston has not exactly served as a fortress for the men’s team, with the United States winning just one match there before, though they are 2-0 in Texas during this tournament, defeating Saudi Arabia 1-0 in Austin and following that up with a 2-1 triumph over Haiti in Arlington.

The Yanks have got the better of El Tri in many decisive games of late, winning all four meetings against them in the final of a CONCACAF competition this decade, posting three clean sheets over that span, including a 1-0 victory the last time they met in a Gold Cup final in 2021.

In what was a physical and tense semi-final affair versus an overly aggressive Honduran side, the Mexicans persevered thanks to their solid defensive game.

Javier Aguirre is only the second manager in the history of the national team to lead them to a Gold Cup final multiple times, guiding them to the title in 2009, with Gerardo Martino being the other Mexican boss to make two finals in this competition.

At this tournament so far, Aguirre’s men have been airtight defensively, posting four successive clean sheets, while conceding three of the four lowest expected goals ratios in the competition so far, allowing a rate of 0.10 to La H on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, they have recorded five straight clean sheets in the knockout portion of the Gold Cup, equalling their streak in that phase from 1993 to 1998 and can claim a record 10th tournament victory on Sunday.

Overall, they are allowing an average of just 1.6 shots on target to the opposition in this year’s Gold Cup, the lowest mark of any side in the competition this year.

Whatever Aguirre has said to his team at half-time, his messages have been well received, with seven of Mexico’s eight goals scored occurring in the final 45 minutes.

Only twice this century have we seen the reigning Gold Cup champions retain their crown in the subsequent edition of this competition, though El Tri were the last ones to do so in 2009 and 2011, with both of those triumphs coming against the US.

USA CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

USA form (all competitions):

Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

Mexico form (all competitions):

Team News

In the semi-finals, Pochettino gave Walker Zimmerman his first appearance at the 2025 Gold Cup, bringing him on in place of Max Arfsten for the final five minutes plus stoppage time, while the US made no changes to their starting 11.

If he plays in the final, Tyler Adams will reach the half-century mark for caps with the Yanks, Malik Tillman can hit the quarter-century point should he feature, while Tim Ream can reach the three-quarter century mark on Sunday, earning his 74th cap on Wednesday.

Diego Luna notched an opening half brace in their semi-final triumph, netting the fastest opening goal for the Yanks in the history of the Gold Cup knockout round (three minutes and 16 seconds), while Miles Robinson is hoping that lighting can strike twice, as he scored the winner the last time they faced El Tri in the final of this tournament in 2021.

From the quarter-finals to the semis, Aguirre made two changes to the Mexican starting 11, with Cesar Montes and Mateo Chavez replacing Jesus Gallardo and Erik Lira.

Captain Edson Alvarez played the full 90 minutes in central midfield and is now just nine caps shy of 100, while Cesar Huerta is a mere two appearances away from the quarter-century mark.

Raul Jimenez scored his 41st goal all-time for El Tri on Wednesday, with 16-year-old Gilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano becoming the youngest player to record a Gold Cup assist since 2013, while Luis Malagon had to make just one stop for a fourth successive clean sheet.

USA possible starting lineup:

Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten; Adams, De la Torre; Berhalter, Tillman, Luna; Agyemang

Mexico possible starting lineup:

Malagon; Araujo, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Rodriguez, Ed. Alvarez, L. Chavez; Alvarado, Jimenez, Vega

We say: USA 0-1 Mexico

The Yanks may have a psychological edge over El Tri, given their success against them in recent finals, but Aguirre always seems to find the right tactical approach to propel his side to victory in big games.

While the Americans may have more attacking depth overall, as a team, Mexico are much more solid defensively and do not make nearly as many errors as the US, which in what promises to be a tense final can often make the difference.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Written by
Joel Lefevre

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