USA national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals
Jun 16, 2023 at 3am UK
Allianz Stadium
Mexico national football team

USA
3 - 0
Mexico

Pulisic (37', 46'), Pepi (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between USA and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 1-1 Mexico
Thursday, April 20 at 3am in International Friendlies

Mexico

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Cameroon
Sunday, June 11 at 3am in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.

Result
USADrawMexico
39.32% (0.542 0.54)28.83% (0.345 0.34)31.85% (-0.892 -0.89)
Both teams to score 44.88% (-1.172 -1.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.4% (-1.344 -1.34)61.6% (1.34 1.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.56% (-1.009 -1.01)81.44% (1.006 1.01)
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.49% (-0.35000000000001 -0.35)30.51% (0.346 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.27% (-0.415 -0.41)66.73% (0.41 0.41)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.58% (-1.354 -1.35)35.41% (1.351 1.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.82% (-1.433 -1.43)72.18% (1.429 1.43)
Score Analysis
    USA 39.31%
    Mexico 31.85%
    Draw 28.82%
USADrawMexico
1-0 @ 12.82% (0.51 0.51)
2-1 @ 7.9% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-0 @ 7.61% (0.234 0.23)
3-1 @ 3.13% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-0 @ 3.01% (0.065 0.07)
3-2 @ 1.62% (-0.087 -0.09)
4-1 @ 0.93% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 39.31%
1-1 @ 13.31% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 10.8% (0.53 0.53)
2-2 @ 4.1% (-0.178 -0.18)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 28.82%
0-1 @ 11.21% (0.15 0.15)
1-2 @ 6.91% (-0.231 -0.23)
0-2 @ 5.82% (-0.137 -0.14)
1-3 @ 2.39% (-0.173 -0.17)
0-3 @ 2.01% (-0.125 -0.13)
2-3 @ 1.42% (-0.117 -0.12)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 31.85%

How you voted: USA vs Mexico

USA
67.6%
Draw
11.8%
Mexico
20.6%
68
Head to Head
Apr 20, 2023 3am
Friendlies 1
USA
1-1
Mexico
Ferreira (81')
Uriel (55')
> Preview
Mar 25, 2022 2am
Third Round
Mexico
0-0
USA
> Preview
Nov 13, 2021 2.10am
Third Round
USA
2-0
Mexico
Pulisic (74'), McKennie (85')
Robinson (59'), Steffen (68'), McKennie (68')
Robinson (89')

Romo (45+1'), Rodriguez (68')
> Preview
Aug 2, 2021 1.30am
Final
USA
1-0
Mexico
Robinson (117')
Acosta (113')

Herrera (72'), Gallardo (114'), Alvarez (117')
> Preview
Sep 7, 2019 1.30am
International Friendlies
USA
0-3
Mexico

Long (45'), Morales (58')
Hernandez (21'), Gutierrez (78'), Uriel (82')
Sanchez (58'), Hernandez (74')
rhs 2.0


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!