UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Spain national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Estadio Nuevo Arcangel
Serbia national football team

Spain
3 - 0
Serbia

Laporte (5'), Morata (65'), Baena (77')
Oyarzabal (7')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Erakovic (38'), Mitrovic (53'), Milenkovic (54'), Jovic (90+1')
Pavlovic (76')

The Match

Match Report

Goals from Aymeric Laporte, Alvaro Morata and Alex Baena help Spain beat 10-man Serbia 3-0 and guarantee their place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Spain and Serbia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Spain could line up in their UEFA Nations League contest with Serbia on Tuesday night.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spain

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Spain 1-0 Denmark
Saturday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Serbia

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Serbia 2-0 Switzerland
Saturday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 18.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.

Result
SpainDrawSerbia
58.45% (0.158 0.16)23.48% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)18.07% (-0.152 -0.15)
Both teams to score 47.08% (-0.23999999999999 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.75% (-0.178 -0.18)52.25% (0.176 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.05% (-0.156 -0.16)73.95% (0.15300000000001 0.15)
Spain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.38% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)17.62% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.79% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)48.21% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Serbia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.15% (-0.285 -0.29)42.84% (0.283 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.84% (-0.242 -0.24)79.16% (0.23899999999999 0.24)
Score Analysis
    Spain 58.44%
    Serbia 18.07%
    Draw 23.47%
SpainDrawSerbia
1-0 @ 13.1% (0.09 0.09)
2-0 @ 11.37% (0.069999999999999 0.07)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 6.59% (0.042 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.58% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.86% (0.017 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.42% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 2.37% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.03% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.99% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 58.44%
1-1 @ 11.1% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.55% (0.053 0.05)
2-2 @ 4.09% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 23.47%
0-1 @ 6.4% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.71% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
0-2 @ 2.71% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.33% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.16% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 18.07%

How you voted: Spain vs Serbia

Spain
77.2%
Draw
12.9%
Serbia
9.9%
263
Head to Head
Sep 5, 2024 7.45pm
League A
Serbia
0-0
Spain
Erakovic (5'), Birmancevic (43'), Belic (69')
Perez (21'), Carvajal (27'), Yamal (41'), Le Normand (59'), Olmo (67'), De la Fuente Castillo (85')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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