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UEFA Nations League

Spain national football team
Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Estadio de Mestalla
Netherlands national football team

Spain
3 - 3
Netherlands

Oyarzabal (8' pen., 67'), Yamal (103')
Le Normand (53'), Simon (108')
FT
(aet)
Depay (54' pen.), Maatsen (79'), Simons (109' pen.)
Depay (60')
Spain win 5-4 on penalties

The Match

Match Report

Spain book their spot in the semi-finals of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League courtesy of a penalty-shootout success over Netherlands.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Spain and Netherlands, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Netherlands could line up in the second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final against Spain.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spain

All competitions
Last Game: Netherlands 2-2 Spain
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Netherlands

All competitions
Last Game: Netherlands 2-2 Spain
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 53.78%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 23.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%).

Result
SpainDrawNetherlands
53.78% (-0.253 -0.25)22.67% (0.088000000000001 0.09)23.55% (0.16 0.16)
Both teams to score 57.82% (-0.102 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.98% (-0.22900000000001 -0.23)42.01% (0.222 0.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.58% (-0.23 -0.23)64.42% (0.22300000000001 0.22)
Spain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.39% (-0.169 -0.17)15.6% (0.164 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.41% (-0.309 -0.31)44.58% (0.303 0.3)
Netherlands Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.51% (0.012 0.01)31.48% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.13% (0.015000000000001 0.02)67.87% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Spain 53.78%
    Netherlands 23.55%
    Draw 22.66%
SpainDrawNetherlands
2-1 @ 9.8% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.12% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.48% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.07% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.25% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.51% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.82% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.44% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.63% (-0.019 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.05% (-0.019 -0.02)
5-0 @ 0.91% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 53.78%
1-1 @ 10.54% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.66% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 4.91% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 22.66%
1-2 @ 6.09% (0.032 0.03)
0-1 @ 5.68% (0.059 0.06)
0-2 @ 3.28% (0.035 0.03)
1-3 @ 2.35% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.18%
0-3 @ 1.26% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 23.55%

How you voted: Spain vs Netherlands

Spain
75.0%
Draw
10.5%
Netherlands
14.5%
152
Head to Head
Mar 20, 2025 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Netherlands
2-2
Spain
Gakpo (28'), Reijnders (46')
Gakpo (45+1'), van Dijk (79')
Hato (81')
Williams (9'), Merino (90+3')
Huijsen (61'), Perez (72')
> Match Report
Nov 11, 2020 7.45pm
Friendlies 1
Netherlands
1-1
Spain
Van de Beek (47')
van de Beek (89')
Canales (18')
Reguilon (49'), Olmo (84')
> Preview
Mar 29, 2020 6pm
International Friendlies
Netherlands
P-P
Spain
Mar 31, 2015 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Netherlands
2-0
Spain
> Match Report
Jun 13, 2014 8pm
Group Stage
Spain
1-5
Netherlands
Alonso (27' pen.)
Casillas (65')
Van Persie (44', 72'), Robben (53', 80'), De Vrij (64')
de Guzman (25'), de Vrij (41'), van Persie (66')
> Match Report