Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.