Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 36.75%. A win for Vitoria de Setubal had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Vitoria de Setubal win was 1-0 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
