Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 55.72%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 22.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.