Georgia have shown that they are capable of performing against top opposition, both in the European Championship and in their Nations League campaign.
Armenia can consider themselves somewhat fortunate to be in a promotion playoff, but there is an element of unpredictability about them, given that they have a new head coach.
We think that this match will be a close one, and that Georgia will take an advantage with them into the return leg at the weekend, and 2-1 should be enough for them to see the job through on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 55.33%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Georgia had a probability of 21.11%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Georgia win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Georgia would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.52) 
