Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 42.5%. A win for Atletico San Luis had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Atletico San Luis win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
