Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 14.81%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.91%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.85%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-2 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.