Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.54%. A win for Sparta Prague had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.55%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Sparta Prague win was 1-0 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.