Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 55.89%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 22.13% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 (5.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.