HJK Helsinki have no choice but to throw everything at Qarabag as they attempt to turn the tie around, but the hosts' attacking approach will likely leave them exposed at the back.
With that in mind, we expect Qarabag to absorb a fair amount of pressure early on before picking their moments to put the contest out of HJK's reach.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Qarabag FK in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Qarabag FK.
-0.89) 
1.23) 
