Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 45.55%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.