Birmingham City 1-3 Cardiff City - EFL Cup Second Round - Football

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Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Birmingham City and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Hogan (70')
Oakley (35'), Cosgrove (76')
Jutkiewicz (56')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Colwill (3'), Wintle (68'), Etete (90+4')
Rinomhota (23'), Etete (50'), Romeo (90+3')

The Match

More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Birmingham City

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Birmingham 2-1 Plymouth
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cardiff City

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Cardiff 2-1 Sheff Weds
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Birmingham City 2-1 Cardiff City

Birmingham are on an impressive run of results heading into this one, and the added advantage of playing on home turf makes them favourites. We are backing the home team to come out on top, albeit by only a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 42.34%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.

Result
Birmingham City	Draw	Cardiff City
42.34% ( 0.31)	27.45% ( 0.01)	30.21% ( -0.32)

Both teams to score 48.18% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.81% (

-0.15)

57.19% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.95% (

-0.12)

78.05% (

0.12)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.31% (

0.1)

26.69% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.06% (

0.12)

61.94% (

-0.12)

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.72% (

-0.31)

34.28% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.02% (

-0.34)

70.98% (

0.34)

Score Analysis

Birmingham City 42.34%

Cardiff City 30.21%

Draw 27.44%

Birmingham City	Draw	Cardiff City
1-0 @ 12.08% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.03% Total : 42.34%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.44%	0-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.93% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.27% Total : 30.21%

How you voted: Birmingham vs Cardiff

Birmingham City

75.8%

Draw

4.8%

Cardiff City

19.4%

Head to Head

Feb 14, 2023 7.45pm

Gameweek 32

0-2

Ng (84'), Robinson (90+5')

Aug 13, 2022 12.30pm

Gameweek 3

1-0

Philogene-Bidace (17')
Ojo (90+1')

Hogan (51'), James (70'), Trusty (90'), Colin (90+6')

Apr 30, 2022 3pm

Gameweek 45

1-1

Vaulks (82' pen.)
McGuinness (48'), Drameh (57'), Nelson (67'), Vaulks (76')

Bela (22')
Gordon (58'), Etheridge (82')

Dec 11, 2021 3pm

Gameweek 22

2-2

Deeney (29'), Sunjic (45+1')
Sunjic (63'), Friend (85')

Moore (66'), McGuinness (90+1')
Nelson (16'), Ralls (72')

May 1, 2021 3pm

Gameweek 45

0-4