Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 61.16%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 15.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.33%) and 1-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (6.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
