Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Banfield win with a probability of 37.2%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 34.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Banfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Banfield would win this match.
