Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 14, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Aucas
2 - 1
Melgar
Vega (56'), Carerra (78')
Alexander Mina Caicedo (42'), Fydriszewski (48'), Viotti (67'), Matias Pizzorno Bracco (69')
Alexander Mina Caicedo (42'), Fydriszewski (48'), Viotti (67'), Matias Pizzorno Bracco (69')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Aucas and Melgar.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 38.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.91%) and 2-0 (4.99%). The likeliest Melgar win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aucas in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aucas | Draw | Melgar |
| 39.05% | 22.83% | 38.12% |
| Both teams to score 66.06% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
