Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.56%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 27.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 43.56% | 28.68% | 27.76% |
| Both teams to score 43.61% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.65% | 62.35% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.01% | 81.99% |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.52% | 28.48% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.75% | 64.25% |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.98% | 39.02% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.26% | 75.74% |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 13.95% 2-0 @ 8.77% 2-1 @ 8.25% 3-0 @ 3.67% 3-1 @ 3.45% 3-2 @ 1.63% 4-0 @ 1.15% 4-1 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.6% Total : 43.55% | 1-1 @ 13.13% 0-0 @ 11.11% 2-2 @ 3.88% Other @ 0.55% Total : 28.67% | 0-1 @ 10.45% 1-2 @ 6.18% 0-2 @ 4.92% 1-3 @ 1.94% 0-3 @ 1.54% 2-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 1.5% Total : 27.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Burnley | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 55 | 26 | 29 | 62 |
| 2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 57 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 45 |
| 4 | Luton TownLuton | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 45 |
| 5 | Watford | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 44 |
| 6 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 28 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 43 |
| 7 | Norwich CityNorwich | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Millwall | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 42 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 41 |
| 10 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 41 |
| 11 | Preston North EndPreston | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 40 |
| 12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 39 |
| 13 | Coventry CityCoventry | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 38 |
| 14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 38 |
| 15 | Hull City | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Reading | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 37 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 33 |
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 33 |
| 19 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 32 |
| 20 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 31 |
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 29 |
| 22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 26 |
| 23 | Blackpool | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 26 |
| 24 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 25 |
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