Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 10, 2024 at 5pm UK
Sportland Arena, Tallinn
Celje

Flora
0 - 5
Celje


Hussar (37'), Jonne Tougjas (44')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Matko (7'), Vuklisevic (10'), Zabukovnik (45+1'), Aarons (71'), Svetlin (90')
Zabukovnik (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Flora and Celje, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Flora 0-2 SSC Farul
Wednesday, August 16 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
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Last Game: Radomlje 1-1 Celje
Saturday, May 18 at 2pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for Flora had a probability of 38.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.49%) and 0-2 (5.2%). The likeliest Flora win was 2-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.

Result
FloraDrawCelje
38.28% (0.123 0.12)23.39% (-0.031000000000002 -0.03)38.32% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)
Both teams to score 63.83% (0.109 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.18% (0.142 0.14)37.82% (-0.146 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.93% (0.152 0.15)60.07% (-0.156 -0.16)
Flora Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.88% (0.11999999999999 0.12)20.11% (-0.124 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.62% (0.193 0.19)52.37% (-0.197 -0.2)
Celje Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.9% (0.013999999999996 0.01)20.1% (-0.017999999999997 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.65% (0.026000000000003 0.03)52.34% (-0.029999999999994 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Flora 38.28%
    Celje 38.32%
    Draw 23.39%
FloraDrawCelje
2-1 @ 8.34% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 6.48% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-0 @ 5.2% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 4.46% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.58% (0.02 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.78% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.79% (0.016 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.43% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.11% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 38.28%
1-1 @ 10.4% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 6.69% (0.011 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.04% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.91% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 23.39%
1-2 @ 8.35% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-1 @ 6.49% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-2 @ 5.2% (-0.03 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.46% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.58% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.78% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.79% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.44% (0.004 0)
0-4 @ 1.12% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 38.32%

How you voted: Flora vs Celje

Flora
16.7%
Draw
22.2%
Celje
61.1%
36